2024 U.S. Presidential election (2024)

I should know better than to jump into this, but I believe their is a difference between "sympathy" for a side and the conduct of waging the war. So this might be what he was talking about (from Gallup):

After narrowly backing Israel’s military action in Gaza in November, Americans now oppose the campaign by a solid margin. Fifty-five percent currently disapprove of Israel’s actions, while 36% approve.

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https://news.gallup.com/poll/642695/majority-disapprove-israeli-action-gaza.aspx

He did not say anything about blaming the violence on Israel, he said "disapprove of Israel's conduct in Gaza". I believe there is a significant difference. Emotions run hot on this topic, not sure this is going to end well anywhere.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 said:

I'm not touching this topic with a ten meter cattleprod, but I'll just say that history tends to not be kind to those who shut down peaceful protests, regardless of the issue.

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Nobody cares about history anymore, MtnDevil, only what wins them the next election.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 said:

I'm not touching this topic with a ten meter cattleprod, but I'll just say that history tends to not be kind to those who shut down peaceful protests, regardless of the issue.

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It wasn't peaceful. Not even close. It was not January 6, but far from peaceful.

Columbia completely dropped the ball. Other schools have handled it better. Adams stayed out of it until he was asked to help.

This whole situation is a no-win for Biden - incumbent gets blamed when people are unhappy. There are sectors of the population for whom the middle east is a litmus test issue - not huge numbers, but greater than zero.

Saying that Dems support unruliness is ridiculous and was completely shot down by January 6, but I can't change what people think and what their preferred news sources beat into their heads. This situation does not cleanly fall along party lines.

PackMan97 said:

I wasn't taking it personally. I thought it was a followup comment that issues don't need to be significant to flip this election, not that the war in the middle east is not significant.

As close as this election could be, it could come down to how well either candidate can make the little NC State hand wolf...and let me tell you that I'm not seeing it out of either candidate, time to research third parties.

I think we could come to a pretty quick consensus on this thread that the war in the middle east is easily one of the top threats to Biden's reelection. The economy being the other.

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See Also

The Republican from Springfield, MassachusettsLa e Global Trade---Global Trade

Thanks.

CrazyNotCrazie said:

There are sectors of the population for whom the middle east is a litmus test issue - not huge numbers, but greater than zero.

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Biden's saving grace is that his opponent is not a significantly different option for those who have a litmus test on the issue. Worst case is they stay home or vote third party if they reach a breaking up point with Biden.

MTG says, let's have another Speaker of the House.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/01/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-mike-johnson-vacate/index.html

Question of the day...does any Democrat vote to keep Johnson and keep the house moving or let the Republicans flounder again? Maybe a Republican on their way out decides to defect and vote Jefferies just for the laughs.

I will be interesting to see if any House Rep ever breaks Jeffries record for number of total votes for Speaker.

dudog84 said:

Apologies to the board that I don't proof as well as I used to. Can't believe I used "their" instead of "there". I'm sure it was nails-on-a-chalkboard to my fellow pedants.

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No problem. My idiot phone system autocorrects the verb form "were" to "we're," so I always give folks the benefit of the doubt

PackMan97 said:

I wasn't taking it personally. I thought it was a followup comment that issues don't need to be significant to flip this election, not that the war in the middle east is not significant.

As close as this election could be, it could come down to how well either candidate can make the little NC State hand wolf...and let me tell you that I'm not seeing it out of either candidate, time to research third parties.

I think we could come to a pretty quick consensus on this thread that the war in the middle east is easily one of the top threats to Biden's reelection. The economy being the other.

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Thanks.

It might not be one big thing but Biden's support is getting chipped away on several seemingly independent fronts (immigration, the economy, climate change, the Middle East, cultural wars.) If/when he loses it won't be a singular issue like H. Bush where it was "the Economy, stupid" or Trump for being Trump. It's going to be a multiple of, relatively speaking, smaller issues that aren't universally important to all voters. It's the problem with a Big Tent platform with warring fractions. At some point he's going to have to focus his messaging to reflect that if you don't like how things are going now do you think the other guy will be better? MAGA thinks yes but some people from the Democratic coalitions are thinking just maybe. There are also people that will vote to punish Biden in a cut your nose protest or just stay out of this cycle.

CrazyNotCrazie said:

It wasn't peaceful. Not even close. It was not January 6, but far from peaceful.

Columbia completely dropped the ball. Other schools have handled it better. Adams stayed out of it until he was asked to help.

This whole situation is a no-win for Biden - incumbent gets blamed when people are unhappy. There are sectors of the population for whom the middle east is a litmus test issue - not huge numbers, but greater than zero.

Saying that Dems support unruliness is ridiculous and was completely shot down by January 6, but I can't change what people think and what their preferred news sources beat into their heads. This situation does not cleanly fall along party lines.

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I haven't followed this very closely, but I'd love a link to whatever the non-peaceful protest parts were. I'm not challenging you, I'm just very curious.

dudog84 said:

Apologies to the board that I don't proof as well as I used to. Can't believe I used "their" instead of "there". I'm sure it was nails-on-a-chalkboard to my fellow pedants.

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They’re, they’re, don’t be so hard on yourself.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 said:

I haven't followed this very closely, but I'd love a link to whatever the non-peaceful protest parts were. I'm not challenging you, I'm just very curious.

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I appreciate you asking. This is very near and dear to me - I'm a Jew who lives walking distance from Columbia, my wife and mother have graduate degrees from the school, and my kids go to school, play sports, etc. with children of faculty and staff.

As in all of these situations, accusations definitely get exaggerated at times. And it is very unclear whether the bad actors are truly affiliated with the University or outsiders. I am supportive of peaceful protest, and there are many there for whom that is their goal. But it boiled over into people being afraid and interfering with the operations of a university, and that is a bridge too far. Particularly when they occupied and did damage to an academic building.

I could go on but I'm guessing the mods would not want more. Here are two links - they are a week old so a bit dated at this point, but you get the point and things have only gotten worse. One is from the NY Times (sorry), one is from The Independent. I think there are better resources but I don't have time at the moment to look further.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/lawsuit-columbia-student-protest-b2537314.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/21/nyregion/columbia-protests-antisemitism.html

PackMan97 said:

Fixed that for you.

The one ACC tourney I attended I recall Duke beating the snot outta UVa...near the end of the game what remained of the UVa students started chanting, "We've got Jefferson, you've got Nixon". There was no comeback by the Duke fans.

Ok, carry on with the horse race.

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Of course we had no reply, at first we were dumbstruck that UVA students weren't aware that Thomas Jefferson went to the College of William & Mary for both his undergraduate and law degrees then we were too polite to point out their mistake.

Speaker

PackMan97 said:

MTG says, let's have another Speaker of the House.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/01/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-mike-johnson-vacate/index.html

Question of the day...does any Democrat vote to keep Johnson and keep the house moving or let the Republicans flounder again? Maybe a Republican on their way out decides to defect and vote Jefferies just for the laughs.

I will be interesting to see if any House Rep ever breaks Jeffries record for number of total votes for Speaker.

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From what I've read, the Democrats have already indicated that they will "table" Greene's motion.

MChambers said:

From what I've read, the Democrats have already indicated that they will "table" Greene's motion.

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Amazing MTG isn’t getting Cawthorn’d - yet.

MChambers said:

From what I've read, the Democrats have already indicated that they will "table" Greene's motion.

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I would love to see them vote to vacate the chair and make it appear that Johnson is going down, but then... at the last minute three of the most hated Dems in the House (maybe Hakeem, Adam Schiff, and AOC) stand up and switch their votes to save Johnson. Bwahahahaha!

JasonEvans said:

PackMan was referencing the "large majorities" line from crote, who alleged without any evidence that "large majorities" of Democrats and Independents blame Israel for the violence in the Middle East (a statement that I have since pretty thoroughly debunked). Don't blame Pack for that wording.

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Jason, if you're going to be critical of people's wording, you should at least be more attentive to what I originally wrote. I did not say that large majorities of Democrats and independents "blame Israel for the violence in the Middle East." I said, direct quote:

"A majority of Americans, including large majorities of independents and Democrats, disapprove of Israel's conduct in Gaza."

The evidence for this statement was the Gallup poll from March Dudog subsequently linked to, headline "Majority in U.S. Now Disapprove of Israeli Action in Gaza." (This is the exact poll I was thinking of when I made my post. I should have linked it but it was late, I was on my phone, and I'm lazy, so apologies for that.) The poll found that on the question "Do you approve or disapprove of the military action Israel has taken in Gaza?", the Approve/Disapprove numbers were 29/60 for independents and 18/75 for Democrats. I consider those "large majorities" for disapproval. (The overall American Approve/Disapprove numbers are 36/55; maybe too close to decisively call it a majority, but certainly at least a plurality).

It's one poll, for sure, so YMMV. But the poll you shared, which asked a different question, hardly "thoroughly debunks" the Gallup result my original comment was based on.

Your characterization of what I wrote and the evidence you produced to rebut it was pretty off point. Can you admit you got this one wrong?

CrazyNotCrazie said:

I appreciate you asking. This is very near and dear to me - I'm a Jew who lives walking distance from Columbia, my wife and mother have graduate degrees from the school, and my kids go to school, play sports, etc. with children of faculty and staff.

As in all of these situations, accusations definitely get exaggerated at times. And it is very unclear whether the bad actors are truly affiliated with the University or outsiders. I am supportive of peaceful protest, and there are many there for whom that is their goal. But it boiled over into people being afraid and interfering with the operations of a university, and that is a bridge too far. Particularly when they occupied and did damage to an academic building.

I could go on but I'm guessing the mods would not want more. Here are two links - they are a week old so a bit dated at this point, but you get the point and things have only gotten worse. One is from the NY Times (sorry), one is from The Independent. I think there are better resources but I don't have time at the moment to look further.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/lawsuit-columbia-student-protest-b2537314.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/21/nyregion/columbia-protests-antisemitism.html

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I was wondering when the lawsuits from the Jewish folks that are being affected were going to start, thanks for the link.