Gusty winds, downpours possible in Florida from tropical system in Atlantic
Cheryl McCloudUSA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
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The tropics are heating up, with the National Hurricane Center keeping an eye on two disturbances in addition to Potential Tropical Cyclone One, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of Texas ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which is expected to become a tropical storm before making landfall late Wednesday.
➤Track Potential Tropical Cyclone One
The large storm — which has tropical-storm-force winds extending 290 miles northeast from the center — could be a rainmaker, bringing 5-10 inches of rain and up to 15 inches to some locations, according to the National Hurricane Center. AccuWeather predicted some areas could see up to 30 inches.
If it does become a tropical storm, it'll become the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Alberto. To become a tropical storm, maximum sustained winds must reach at least 39 mph.
Future Tropical Storm Alberto? Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to strengthen before landfall. See spaghetti models
The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring two other systems: a disturbance east of Florida with a low chance for development and another area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico close to where Potential Tropical Cyclone One is.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m., June 18:
Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Special note on the NHC cone:The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
- Location: 410 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas
- Maximum wind speed: 40 mph
- Direction: north at 7 mph
Forecast, impact: Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to strengthen before landfall. See spaghetti models
Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone One
➤Track Potential Tropical Cyclone One
Special note about spaghetti models:Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Southwestern Atlantic: An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves west or west-northwest.
The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United States on Friday.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this systemearly next week while it moves slowly north or northwest.
"With warm waters and low shear still present in the southern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean next weekend, yet another opportunity for tropical development may present itself," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
Depending on environmental conditions, "any moisture from this area may again funnel into the Gulf Coast for the last week of June," AccuWeather said.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Potential Tropical Cyclone One: This system is expected to strengthen and is likely to become a tropical storm by Wednesday before approaching the western Gulf Coast late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Wednesday.
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain across South Texas and into northeastern Mexico, with up to 15 inches possible, NHC forecasters said. AccuWeather forecasters said up to 30 inches may be possible in some locations.
The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore warned "double digit rainfall totals likely along the coastal counties of TX and potentially Houston."
Atlantic: "This appears to be a quick-moving and compact low-pressure area that will be moving westward into northeastern Florida or perhaps as far north as southeastern Georgia on Thursday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.
A stronger storm could bring gusty winds, especially to coastal locations. A less organized storm would bring rough surf and downpours from the northern Bahamas to the Southeast Atlantic coast, AccuWeather said.
Gulf of Mexico: "Depending on the wind pattern in the atmosphere, any moisture from this area may again funnel into the Gulf Coast for the last week of June," according to AccuWeather. "Given the expected rain in the coming week, the risk for localized flooding may increase."
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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